Migration figures fall sharply as Burnham signals shift on key policies

Andy Burnham has acknowledged that net migration in the UK “must decline further”, despite published data revealing the figure has almost halved since 2024. The Manchester mayor and Labour’s candidate in the by-election in Makerfield provided these observations after the ONS reported on Thursday that migration brought 171,000 people to the UK’s population last year — the lowest level since 2012, outside of the Covid pandemic. Burnham said constituents have “voiced worries about immigration” with him on the doorstep, and whilst he supports the “general direction” of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s suggested reforms to create greater barriers for migrants to remain on a long-term basis, he stressed the government must “achieve the correct equilibrium” on the disputed policy.

Net migration records lowest level in over a decade

The most recent Office for National Statistics figures represents a substantial turning point in the UK’s migration trajectory. The number of 171,000 indicates the smallest annual net migration since 2012, a sharp turnaround from the record highs seen in the past few years. This substantial decline reflects the government’s concerted efforts to strengthen visa policy and reduce overall population inflow through tougher visa conditions and enforcement measures.

The progress has not gone unnoticed by Labour leadership, who view the figures as proof that their migration approach is yielding tangible results. However, officials have warned that additional cuts are necessary to meet their long-range objectives. The Home Office has cautioned that without additional policy changes, approximately 1.6 million people could obtain lasting residency between 2026 and 2030, prompting the administration’s drive for stricter residency requirements.

• Net migration declined from historic peaks to lowest level since 2012
• 171,000 people contributed to UK population via net migration last year
• Government plans to make long-term residency significantly harder for migrants
• Home Office forecasts 1.6m prospective migrants without policy intervention

Settlement regulations undergo significant reform during ongoing political discussion

The government’s plans to make stricter residency requirements have triggered substantial controversy within Labour’s internal ranks, with a number of high-ranking officials openly challenging the retroactive application of the suggested reforms. Ex-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has been notably critical in her criticism, describing the policy as “un-British” and accused the government of “moving the goalposts” on those relocating to Britain who have already started building lives in the UK. These concerns highlight fundamental disagreements within the party over how to balance managing immigration with equity and human rights considerations.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has supported the proposals as essential and equitable, arguing they are vital to prevent what she describes as a “drain on our public finances”. She has stressed that the measures are measured approaches to projected settlement figures that could reach 1.6 million people from 2026 to 2030 without action. The public consultation on these contentious proposals will be vital in ascertaining whether the government can find a middle ground that meets the needs of both strict enforcers and those troubled by the personal consequences of more stringent controls.

What the suggested modifications signify

Indefinite leave to remain, formally known as indefinite leave to remain, provides individuals the right to reside, work and pursue education in the UK indefinitely, whilst also enabling them to obtain specific welfare support if qualified. The government’s proposed changes would significantly increase the difficulty for non-UK nationals to achieve this status, effectively restricting long-term residency opportunities. This constitutes a significant policy shift aimed at control population growth and reduce projected settlement numbers substantially over the coming years.

• Settlement provides permanent right to reside and work in UK
• Proposed changes would make permanent residency substantially tougher to obtain
• Policy aims to reduce approximately 1.6 million anticipated settlements during 2026-2030

Burnham recalibrates approach on controversial social topics

Andy Burnham has signalled a marked shift in his position on single-sex spaces, acknowledging that his thinking has developed in light of the Equalities and Human Rights Commission’s updated guidance on the matter. The Greater Manchester mayor told the BBC on Friday that he now endorses the Supreme Court ruling defining a woman under the Equality Act as based on biological sex, stating it “has to be implemented”. This constitutes a notable departure from his earlier position, when he indicated that worries regarding trans women in women’s toilets were shared by only a “small minority”.

Burnham highlighted, however, that whilst acknowledging the regulatory structure, the implementation must be managed with care and understanding. He stressed that the decision should not become “a kind of victory over other people in society” and warned against further marginalising already vulnerable groups. His carefully calibrated position attempts to reconcile regulatory requirements with broader societal duty, reflecting wider party divisions over how to navigate increasingly polarised debates around gender and equality issues.

The evolution of his approach

When asked about whether his position had shifted, Burnham was forthright, telling journalists: “I’ll be honest, yes. I’ve tracked the discussion as it’s progressed over the years.” His admission reflects a willingness to reassess long-held views in light of legal developments and public consultation, demonstrating the fluidity of stance-taking on contentious social matters within the party.

Electoral contest intensifies in Greater Manchester

Andy Burnham’s remarks on social policy and immigration occur as Labour readies for a crucial by-election battle in Makerfield, a traditionally safe Labour seat in Greater Manchester. The electoral contest, sparked by the resignation of sitting MP Mike Jevons, constitutes a major test of the party’s standing in a heartland constituency where concerns among working-class voters about public services and immigration have consistently dominated local political discourse. Burnham’s readiness to recognise public concerns about immigration whilst supporting the government’s broader approach indicates Labour is acutely aware of the political sensitivities connected to these questions in previously industrial regions.

The Makerfield contest holds particular symbolic weight, as the constituency has been represented by Labour since 1997 and any significant swing away from the party would send shockwaves through Westminster. Burnham’s prominent campaign efforts in the seat underscores Labour’s determination to hold the line, whilst his repositioning on key policy areas signals an attempt to address voter concerns directly rather than dismiss them. The by-election outcome will provide an early barometer of whether the government’s approach of recognising public feeling whilst upholding progressive policies can successfully navigate the complex political landscape of contemporary British politics.

• Makerfield held by Labour from 1997 without significant challenge
• Election prompted by incumbent Member of Parliament Mike Jevons’ resignation
• Result will demonstrate the government’s polling performance in heartland constituencies